The market's price on "Bitcoin Hits $100K by End of 2026" has fallen 26 points over the past month, down 11 of that in the past week, one of the clearest sustained moves on the board. It now reads 86% NO. On October 28th this brief named "Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel" at 50% YES. The market's price has fallen to 29% since, a move of 20 points in 2 days. 3 of the 5 biggest movers sit in the Americas, clustered together on the map: "Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad" (United States) and "Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028" (United States) and "The Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026" (Kansas). The month-long backdrop is unchanged: mortgage rates and how households feel are still pressing on the wallet. Otherwise the picture held: people filing for unemployment is 194k; yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.37%.
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Households pay this price every time they fill up the tank, and elevated gas has historically tracked with declines in consumer approval.
The 10-year Treasury rate is the risk-free rate that prices many long-term borrowing costs; when it reaches 5.05% it enters a zone historically associated with policy reversals.
The 30-year Treasury rate sets the cost of very long-term government borrowing; at 5.37% it approaches a zone where fiscal sustainability becomes a constraint and mortgage rates spike.
The 30-year mortgage rate determines how much a household owes each month on a home; at 7.24% it enters a crisis zone for housing affordability.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment measures how optimistic households are about their finances and jobs; at 48 it signals severe depression and typically precedes contractions in spending.
The VIX measures how much fear is priced into equity markets; at 16.9 it is in the normal range, suggesting financial markets are not expecting major shocks.
Source: FRED
Jobless claims count how many people filed for unemployment benefits in the past week; at 194,000 they remain very low, reflecting a tight labor market where companies are still hiring.
Source: FRED
The yield curve spread shows whether long-term borrowing costs more than short-term; at 0.37% it is flattening, a pattern that historically precedes recessions.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold and Polymarket agree on a 0 percentage points spread, indicating they price the event equally likely at 5%, suggesting no significant market bias or disagreement between platforms regarding this outcome.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on a 90% probability of the Republican party winning the governorship in New Hampshire, indicating a high level of consensus among market participants.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms disagree by 14 percentage points, with Polymarket at 5% and Manifold at 19%, indicating a significant divergence in market sentiment regarding the likelihood of Ramaswamy pulling the ad.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on a 66% probability of You Can See Everything winning, with no price listed for an alternative outcome, indicating a consensus around this film's chances.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold (74%) and Polymarket (84%) disagree by 10 percentage points on the likelihood of another Fed rate hike, indicating differing opinions among market participants about future monetary policy decisions.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 4 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |