On polymarket, the market's price on "French Presidential Election Runoff Qualifiers" rose 6 points in the past day, about 5.5 times its normal daily move of 1.0 points. It now reads 89% NO. 2 of the 5 biggest movers sit in Europe, clustered together on the map: "Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin" (Germany) and "French Presidential Election Runoff Qualifiers" (France). The month-long backdrop is unchanged: borrowing costs, mortgage rates, gas at the pump and layoffs are still pressing on the wallet. Otherwise the picture held: 30-year mortgage rate is 6.76%; people filing for unemployment is 206k.
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10-year Treasury rate is 4.96%, up from 4.68% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment is 55, up from 50 a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.32%, down from +0.51% a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Market volatility (VIX) is 15.8, up from 14.6 a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
30-year Treasury rate is 5.35%, up from 5.24% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Gas at the pump is $4.16/gal, up from $4.08/gal a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
30-year mortgage rate is 6.76%, up from 6.69% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
People filing for unemployment is 206k, up from 200k a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew more sure overnight.
Manifold prices the Clarity Act at 39%, while polymarket is lower at 30%, indicating a disagreement of 9 percentage points, reflecting differing opinions on the likelihood of its passage.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and grew less sure overnight.
The platforms agree on a 50% probability, with Polymarket pricing Elif Eralp at this level, indicating no clear favorite or underdog in the race for the next Governing Mayor of Berlin.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Markets pricing Apple's chances of launching a new product line in the next ~2.5 years at just 28%, suggesting skepticism about category expansion beyond existing iPhone/Mac/Watch/iPad portfolios. The tight 2-point spread indicates consensus that this is a low-probability event.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket prices Scott Jennings at 16%, indicating the current market consensus on who will be Trump's next Press Secretary, with no other information available to inform the prediction.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and grew less sure overnight.
Both platforms agree on Jordan Bardella's 6% chance of advancing to the second round, indicating a low confidence level among market participants in his qualification prospects.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 1 fell 1 flat |
| EUROPE | 1 rose 1 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |