30-year Treasury rate is 5.20%, up from 4.86% a month ago. "Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026" cites that number in its own backing data, and its odds of happening rose 6 points, moving the same way. It now reads 51% NO. 2 of the 5 biggest movers sit in Europe, clustered together on the map: "English Premier League Champion Odds" (United Kingdom) and "Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Man…" (United Kingdom).
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30-year Treasury rate is 5.20%, up from 4.86% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
10-year Treasury rate is 4.67%, up from 4.38% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Consumer sentiment is 50, up from 45 a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Gas at the pump is $4.10/gal, up from $3.91/gal a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
People filing for unemployment is 197k, down from 216k a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.45%, up from +0.30% a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
30-year mortgage rate is 6.66%, up from 6.49% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Market volatility (VIX) is 17.1, up from 16.4 a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The two platforms agree on a 28-29% probability of Revolut launching a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026, indicating a moderate level of market uncertainty and no clear consensus on the likelihood of this event occurring.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on an 8% average probability of the champion being one specific team (Tottenham), with no other prices available, indicating a lack of market activity or interest in other teams.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Markets pricing 35-36% odds that 2026 becomes the hottest year globally. The tight agreement across platforms suggests confidence in this baseline despite inherent uncertainty in annual temperature rankings and climate volatility.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on Morgan Stanley's lead underwriter role, with a 7-point spread between 66% and 73%, indicating a nuanced market view on the bank's involvement.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket prices Dan Barker at 0%, indicating no confidence in him winning the most votes, while Kalshi has no price listed, suggesting it's not currently tradable or priced out.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 2 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |