The market's price on "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election" crossed the 50% line to YES today. It now reads 90% YES, having moved 27 points across the window. 2 of the 5 biggest movers sit in Europe, clustered together on the map: "Next Prime Minister of Serbia Election Agreement" (Serbia) and "Ukraine-Russia Territory Cession Disagreement" (Ukraine). The month-long backdrop is unchanged: mortgage rates and how households feel are still pressing on the wallet. Otherwise the picture held: yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.31%; gas at the pump is $4.28/gal; people filing for unemployment is 194k.
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Market volatility (VIX) is 19.0, up from 14.2 a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
30-year mortgage rate is 7.32%, up from 6.95% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment is 48, down from 52 a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.31%, up from +0.26% a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
Gas at the pump is $4.28/gal, about the same as a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
People filing for unemployment is 194k, down from 198k a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
10-year Treasury rate is 4.96%, about the same as a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
30-year Treasury rate is 5.29%, about the same as a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Markets show weak confidence in Lula's 2026 re-election bid at 46% average probability, with narrow 4-point spread indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus. Depressed consumer sentiment and elevated gas prices—historical approval headwinds—suggest economic conditions
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on an average probability of 68%, indicating a neutral market sentiment with no clear favorite or underdog in the next Prime Minister election, as evidenced by the 0 percentage points spread between them.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and grew more sure overnight.
Markets diverge 11 points on Chow's re-election odds despite her current incumbency advantage. The spread likely reflects uncertainty around economic headwinds (depressed consumer sentiment, elevated gas prices) that historically pressure incumbent approval ratings heading into 2
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and grew less sure overnight.
The platforms agree on an average probability of 38%, indicating a neutral market sentiment with no clear favorite or underdog in the next Israeli Minister of Defense position, as reflected by the 0 percentage points spread between them.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and grew a little less sure overnight.
Manifold prices Ukraine ceding land to Russia at 52%, while Polymarket is significantly lower at 10%, indicating a substantial disagreement between the platforms on this issue, with a 42-point spread reflecting differing opinions.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| EUROPE | 1 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 1 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |