On October 18th this brief named 'New Hampshire Governor Election Agreement' at 5% YES, and the market's price has risen to 94% since, a move of 89 points in 5 days.
That market sits in New Hampshire, a state election question unrelated to the month-long squeeze on household money, where mortgage rates have climbed to 7.32% from 6.95% and borrowing costs to 5.13% from 4.96%. Most of the broader prediction markets sit nowhere on the map, tracking artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, and entertainment questions that have drifted lower, while Goldman Sachs serving as OpenAI's lead underwriter rose 6 points today to 62% YES. Consumer sentiment stands at 52, down from 55 a month ago, now below the threshold that marks sustained economic distress.
→ Open the live interactive board
Get this every morning
Delivered to your inbox at 6:30, with the full archive, alerts, and the live board →
Market volatility measures how much uncertainty investors feel, which can swing the value of retirement accounts and stock investments.
The 30-year mortgage rate determines the monthly cost of borrowing to buy a home or refinance an existing one.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment reflects whether people feel optimistic or pessimistic about the economy, and directly affects spending and hiring decisions.
The spread between long-term and short-term borrowing costs signals whether the market expects the economy to strengthen or weaken ahead.
Gas prices directly affect household budgets and the cost of getting to work, and have historically correlated with voter approval of elected leaders.
The number of people filing for unemployment indicates how strong the job market is and whether employers are still hiring.
Source: FRED
The 10-year Treasury rate sets the baseline for long-term borrowing costs across the economy, from mortgages to auto loans to business expansion.
The 30-year Treasury rate affects the most long-lasting financial decisions, from mortgage refinancing to retirement planning.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold prices a Republican win at 21%, while Polymarket's inverse question implies a Democratic win at 17%, indicating a 4-point agreement between platforms on the probability of a Republican victory, with some uncertainty around the exact odds.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on a 15% average probability of the winner, with no price listed for Kalshi and Polymarket pricing at 15%, indicating a neutral market view with no clear favorite or underdog.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and grew a little more sure overnight.
Polymarket prices Deutsche Bank at 1% to lead OpenAI's IPO, indicating a strong consensus among traders, while Kalshi has no price, suggesting a lack of market participation or uncertainty.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew a little more sure overnight.
The average probability of Democrats winning the Texas governor race in 2026 is 19%, with Polymarket pricing at 17% and Manifold at 21%. This 4-point spread indicates disagreement between platforms on the likelihood of a Democratic win.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on a 2-point spread with an average probability of 41%, indicating moderate confidence in Hipkins' potential to become the next Prime Minister, but not overwhelming consensus.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 1 fell 1 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |