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In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on a 70% probability of Democrats sweeping the elections, with no price difference between them, indicating a consensus among market participants.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms disagree by 36 percentage points, with Manifold pricing October as the best month at 47%, while Polymarket sees it at only 11%.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold prices a high probability (78%) of Anthropic's public Form S-1 appearing on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026, while Polymarket disagrees with only a 4% chance of an IPO in October 2026, indicating significant disagreement between the platforms.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold (88%) and polymarket (94%) show a slight disagreement on the release timeline of GPT Astra 6.1+, with polymarket pricing slightly higher, indicating a more confident prediction of an earlier release date.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Markets diverge 11 points on Chow's re-election odds despite her current incumbency advantage. The spread likely reflects uncertainty around economic headwinds (depressed consumer sentiment, elevated gas prices) that historically pressure incumbent approval ratings heading into 2
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |