The market's price on "Lula Re-election 2026" has fallen 39 points over the past month, down 25 of that in the past week, one of the clearest sustained moves on the board.
It now reads 84% NO. The month-long backdrop is unchanged: borrowing costs, mortgage rates, gas at the pump and how households feel are still pressing on the wallet. Otherwise the picture held: market volatility (vix) is 15.3.
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Mortgage rates at 7.28% put housing in affordability crisis zone, determining what you owe if you refinance.
Source: FRED
The 10-year Treasury yield at 5.28% indicates bond vigilante pressure that historically forces policy reversals.
Source: FRED
The 30-year Treasury yield at 5.63% signals fiscal sustainability concerns that can spiral into higher deficits and mortgage spikes.
Source: FRED
Gas at $4.46 a gallon is elevated and historically correlates with approval declines.
Consumer sentiment at 52 is depressed and below the recessionary threshold.
Market volatility at 15.3 is in the normal range.
Source: FRED
The yield curve spread at 0.47% is flattening, a warning to watch for inversion.
Source: FRED
Jobless claims at 197,000 are very low, indicating a tight labor market.
Source: FREDIn plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on an 82% probability, indicating a strong consensus among traders about the next Prime Minister's identity, with no clear underdog or overbetting.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on an average probability of 68%, indicating a neutral market sentiment with no clear favorite or underdog in the next Prime Minister election, as evidenced by the 0 percentage points spread between them.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Massive 48-point spread between Kalshi (63%) and Polymarket (15%) on U.S. recognition of breakaway Somaliland. Disagreement likely reflects different interpretations of Trump's foreign policy priorities, geopolitical constraints with Somalia, and whether recognition occurs via ex
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Markets pricing 35-36% odds that 2026 becomes the hottest year globally. The tight agreement across platforms suggests confidence in this baseline despite inherent uncertainty in annual temperature rankings and climate volatility.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on a 3-point spread, with Kalshi slightly higher at 40%, indicating a slight bias towards an earlier solution by AI, but still a relatively low average probability of 39%.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds β drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 2 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |