On September 20th this brief named "The margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S.
Senate election in New Hampshire be at least 6 percentage points" at 28% YES. The market's price has fallen to 3% since, a move of 25 points in 5 days. This sharp reversal in the Northeast sits alongside other political shifts in the Americas: Colorado's Democratic Senate race stands at 85% YES after edging down 9 points over the month, while Pete Buttigieg's presidential run has climbed 10 points over the same span to 60% YES. These political moves remain unrelated to the month's economic backdrop of rising costs: gas now at $4.48 a gallon, the 10-year Treasury rate at 5.11%, and 30-year mortgage rates at 7.03%, even as the labor market has tightened with jobless claims at 197k and consumer sentiment has risen to 55.
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Gas at the pump affects what families spend on transportation and daily living; historically higher prices correlate with reduced consumer spending and voter approval.
The 10-year Treasury rate is what the U.S. government pays to borrow money for a decade, influencing mortgage rates, business investments, and whether government can afford spending plans.
Thirty-year mortgage rates determine the monthly payment on a home loan; when they rise, families can afford less house for the same payment.
Source: FRED
The 30-year Treasury rate is the cost the government pays to borrow for three decades; when it rises sharply, it forces choices between cutting services or raising taxes.
The gap between 10-year and 2-year borrowing rates signals investor confidence in the economy; when it narrows or reverses, it often precedes recession.
Consumer sentiment reflects whether people feel confident about their jobs and finances; when it falls, households reduce spending and increase savings.
Market volatility measures how nervous investors are; a low reading means investors feel confident enough to take risks.
Source: FRED
Jobless claims count people filing for unemployment; low numbers mean jobs are secure but can also signal employers struggle to find workers.
Source: FREDIn plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms show an average probability of 8%, with Polymarket pricing the Democrats at 8%. The 0 percentage points spread indicates agreement between the platforms, suggesting a lack of clear market sentiment or information about the election oโฆ
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket prices the event at 5%, indicating a slight chance of New Hampshire having the closest Senate race in 2026, with no price available on Kalshi for the margin of victory, suggesting uncertainty about specific outcomes.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms disagree on the likelihood of a close Senate race in North Carolina, with Polymarket pricing it at 4% and Kalshi at 11%, indicating differing opinions on the competitiveness of the election.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold and Polymarket disagree by 11 percentage points, with Manifold pricing a 48% chance of a rate hike, while Polymarket prices it at 38%, indicating a significant divergence in market expectations.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on an average probability of 68%, indicating a neutral market sentiment with no clear favorite or underdog in the next Prime Minister election, as evidenced by the 0 percentage points spread between them.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds โ drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 4 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |