The market's price on "Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2028" has fallen 36 points over the past month, down 24 of that in the past week, one of the clearest sustained moves on the board.
It now reads 53% NO. 2 of the 5 biggest movers sit in Europe, clustered together on the map: "Miloš Vučević Serbian Prime Minister Odds" (Serbia) and "Ana Brnabić Next Serbian Prime Minister" (Serbia). On polymarket, the market's price on "New Zealand Prime Minister After Election" fell 12 points in the past day, about 2.5 times its normal daily move of 4.7 points. It now reads 60% NO. The month-long backdrop is unchanged: borrowing costs, mortgage rates and gas at the pump are still pressing on the wallet. Otherwise the picture held: market volatility (vix) is 14.8.
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10-year Treasury rate is 5.01%, up from 4.65% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.20%, down from +0.50% a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment is 55, up from 50 a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
30-year mortgage rate is 6.95%, up from 6.67% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
30-year Treasury rate is 5.34%, up from 5.19% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
People filing for unemployment is 196k, down from 212k a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Gas at the pump is $4.16/gal, up from $4.08/gal a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Market volatility (VIX) is 14.8, about the same as a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FREDIn plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew more sure overnight.
The platforms agree on a 50% probability of Chris Hipkins being the next Prime Minister, with no price listed for Kalshi's related question and Polymarket pricing him at 50%.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew less sure overnight.
Both platforms agree on an average probability of 11%, indicating a low confidence level among market participants regarding North Carolina's Senate race being the closest in 2026, with no significant price difference between them.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Kalshi and Polymarket agree on a 3-point spread, with Kalshi pricing Vučević at 7% and Polymarket at 4%, indicating a slight disagreement on his likelihood to become Prime Minister.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and grew more sure overnight.
Polymarket prices a 66% chance of Harris announcing before 2028, while Kalshi estimates only an 11% probability, indicating a significant disagreement between the platforms on her likelihood to run.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on a narrow 3-point spread around Ana Brnabić's chances at 16%, indicating a relatively low confidence in her potential to become the next Prime Minister of Serbia.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 1 rose 1 fell 0 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 2 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 1 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |