The market's price on whether 2026 will be the hottest year on record now reads 78% YES, having risen 39 points over the past month with 16 of those gains in just the past week.
Traders increasingly expect this to be the warmest year on record, which means higher energy bills when cooling demand spikes in summer. Today's other major movers land in Europe and among unlocated questions: Berlin's next mayor is 82% favored to be Elif Eralp, Goldman Sachs or an affiliate as OpenAI's lead underwriter is 34% likely, and ChatGPT Astra launching in September is 70% likely. Today's climate-market move joins a month-long pattern of rising cost pressures on households.
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Market volatility at 14.5 means traders are calm and seeing few immediate threats.
Consumer sentiment at 55 puts households in the depressed range, signaling worry about jobs and costs ahead.
Initial jobless claims at 203,000 measure how many Americans filed for unemployment benefits; at this level the labor market is holding steady.
Source: FRED
The 30-year Treasury yield at 5.19% is what the government pays to borrow long-term, and it directly influences the mortgage rates homebuyers face.
Gas at $4.08 a gallon means higher costs every time you fill up, and historically elevated prices correlate with declining political approval.
A mortgage rate of 6.66% is what homebuyers pay to borrow for 30 years; at this level demand for new homes is significantly suppressed.
Source: FRED
The yield curve at 0.39% measures the gap between 10-year and 2-year government borrowing costs; when this gap shrinks it historically signals economic caution.
Source: FRED
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.67% is what investors demand to lend to the government for a decade, and rising yields signal doubt about fiscal sustainability.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket prices the event at 5%, indicating a slight chance of New Hampshire having the closest Senate race in 2026, with no price available on Kalshi for the margin of victory, suggesting uncertainty about specific outcomes.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Massive 48-point spread between Kalshi (63%) and Polymarket (15%) on U.S. recognition of breakaway Somaliland. Disagreement likely reflects different interpretations of Trump's foreign policy priorities, geopolitical constraints with Somalia, and whether recognition occurs via ex
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold prices Carlos Alcaraz at 23%, while Polymarket shows no price for Grigor Dimitrov, indicating the market has not yet formed an opinion on him as a contender. The agreement between platforms implies a lack of confidence in any single player.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew much more sure overnight.
The average probability is 49%, indicating equal odds on both sides of the agreement, with Polymarket pricing it at 49% and Kalshi not providing a price due to its different format.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The two platforms agree on a 28-29% probability of Revolut launching a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026, indicating a moderate level of market uncertainty and no clear consensus on the likelihood of this event occurring.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds β drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 1 fell 4 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |