The market's price on "The Opportunities Party elected in 2026 New Zealand election" has risen 14 points over the past month, down 5 of that in the past week, one of the clearest sustained moves on the board.
It now reads 53% YES. On 2026-08-20 this brief named "The margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at l…" at 36% YES. It has fallen to 6% since, a move of 30 points in 5 days. 2 of the 5 biggest movers sit in the Americas, clustered together on the map: "North Carolina Senate Margin of Victory Disagreement" (North Carolina) and "2026 Men's US Open Winner Odds" (United States). The month-long backdrop is unchanged: borrowing costs, mortgage rates and gas at the pump are still pressing on the wallet. Otherwise the picture held: people filing for unemployment is 206k.
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VIX at 15.1 is normal, indicating investors see stable market conditions in the near term.
Consumer sentiment at 50 is severely depressed, signaling the spending contraction that dampens job growth.
Thirty-year rates at 5.27% are at fiscal crisis levels where mortgage rates spike and housing demand freezes.
Yield curve at 0.46% is flattening toward inversion, which traders watch as a key signal of economic cycles.
Mortgage rates at 6.65% are high, resulting in significant suppression of housing demand.
Source: FRED
Gas at $4.05 is elevated and historically correlates with voter approval declines that affect elections.
Ten-year rates at 4.74% create the bond vigilante pressure that has historically forced policy reversals.
Jobless claims at 206,000 are healthy, showing employment remains stable.
Source: FRED
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Kalshi converge on Republican dominance (80-84%) despite macro headwinds. The tight 4-point spread signals high confidence in outcome, though elevated gas prices and depressed consumer sentiment present latent downside risk to incumbent-party performance.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold and Polymarket disagree by 33 percentage points, with Manifold pricing a 96% chance of an IPO before 2027, while Polymarket estimates a 63% chance, indicating a significant divergence in market expectations.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on Katharina Pötter's chances at 55%, indicating a neutral market view with no clear bias towards her or any other candidate, given the 0 percentage points spread.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on an average probability of 89%, with a 0 percentage points spread indicating no disagreement between manifold and polymarket prices, suggesting a high level of confidence in the predicted timeline.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on a 2% chance of Sean Duffy being the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet, indicating low confidence in this event occurring. The identical prices across platforms suggest a shared assessment of his likelihood of departure.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 2 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |