On 2026-08-13 this brief named "Fed rate hike in 2026" at 54% YES, and it has fallen to 33% since, a move of 21 points in 7 days. Three of the five biggest movers sit in the Americas: the North Carolina Democratic Senate margin is up 11 points over the month, and the Florida and Ohio Senate races are shifting on the board. The month-long household wallet squeeze extends: 30-year mortgages at 6.67%, up from 6.49% a month ago, and 10-year borrowing costs at 4.71%, up from 4.55%. Consumer sentiment at 50 remains depressed despite a recent tick up from 45, signaling that households are managing both political calculation and financial pressure.
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VIX at 15.8 represents calm market conditions; when it spikes, traders expect turbulence ahead and pull back from risk.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment at 50 is below the 60 threshold that signals caution, predicting households will pull back from spending on non-essentials.
Gas at $4.05 per gallon is elevated; it is the most visible inflation signal for households and historically correlates with lower approval ratings for sitting politicians.
The yield curve at +0.46% (10-year minus 2-year) is positive but flattening; when it inverts, it has predicted recession within 12 months.
Source: FRED
30-year mortgage rates at 6.67% are high enough to significantly suppress housing demand and directly determine what monthly payment you would owe on a home.
Source: FRED
30-year Treasury yields at 5.28% signal fiscal concerns and flow directly into mortgage rates, affecting what you pay to borrow for a house.
Source: FRED
10-year Treasury yields at 4.71% signal the rate government borrows at and pressure yields this high have historically forced policy reversals.
Source: FRED
Weekly jobless claims at 209,000 remain in healthy range, signaling the labor market is still stable and adding jobs despite the household wallet squeeze.
Source: FREDIn plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on an average probability of 11%, indicating a low confidence level among market participants regarding North Carolina's Senate race being the closest in 2026, with no significant price difference between them.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Kalshi and Polymarket agree on Roberto Gualtieri's low chances at 9-11%, with a 2-point spread indicating moderate disagreement, but both platforms price him as the most likely candidate among those mentioned.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and grew more sure overnight.
Markets pricing 35-36% odds that 2026 becomes the hottest year globally. The tight agreement across platforms suggests confidence in this baseline despite inherent uncertainty in annual temperature rankings and climate volatility.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew less sure overnight.
Manifold prices Sinner or Alcaraz at 64%, while Polymarket has no price listed, indicating a significant disagreement between the platforms on these two players' chances of winning the 2026 US Open.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew a little more sure overnight.
Manifold (54%) and Polymarket (42%) disagree by 12 percentage points, indicating differing opinions on the likelihood of AfD winning an absolute majority, with Manifold more optimistic.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 1 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |