On 2026-08-13 this brief named "Florida Republican Governor Primary Second Place" at 24% YES. It has risen to 72% since, a move of 48 points in 3 days. On 2026-08-13 this brief named "The margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at l…" at 33% YES. It has fallen to 2% since, a move of 31 points in 3 days. The market's price on "AfD Absolute Majority in Sachsen-Anhalt" has fallen 16 points over the past month, up 5 of that in the past week, one of the clearest sustained moves on the board. It now reads 65% NO. The month-long backdrop is unchanged: borrowing costs, mortgage rates and gas at the pump are still pressing on the wallet. Otherwise the picture held: 10-year treasury rate is 4.63%.
→ Open the live interactive board
Get this every morning
Delivered to your inbox at 6:30, with the full archive, alerts, and the live board →
Gas at $4.01 a gallon affects what you pay to drive, heat your home, and the cost of everything shipped.
Household confidence at 50 signals caution; when people feel this way, they delay big purchases and borrowing decisions.
Market volatility at 14.6 is low, meaning investors feel calm and are more willing to lend money and hire workers.
A 30-year mortgage rate of 6.67 percent, up from 6.49 percent a month ago, increases the cost of borrowing to buy a home.
Source: FRED
The 30-year Treasury yield at 5.21 percent affects long-term interest rates; at this level, bond investors pressure the government to restrain spending.
The yield curve at 0.51 percent is the difference between short and long-term government borrowing costs; it sits at a healthy level.
People filing for unemployment is 209k, down from 217k a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.63 percent affects mortgage rates and long-term borrowing costs; historically this level has triggered government policy shifts.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on a 62% probability of Jay Collins finishing second, with no price discrepancy between them, indicating a consensus view on this outcome.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Kalshi and Polymarket disagree by 19 percentage points, with Kalshi pricing Goldman Sachs at 31% and Polymarket at 12%, indicating a significant divergence in market expectations about Goldman's involvement in Anthropic's IPO.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on Morgan Stanley's lead underwriter role, with a 7-point spread between 66% and 73%, indicating a nuanced market view on the bank's involvement.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold (54%) and Polymarket (42%) disagree by 12 percentage points, indicating differing opinions on the likelihood of AfD winning an absolute majority, with Manifold more optimistic.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket (54%) and Kalshi (38%) disagree by 16 percentage points on RFK Jr.'s likelihood of being the next to leave, indicating differing opinions on his cabinet prospects rather than a clear mispricing.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 3 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |