On 2026-08-13 this brief named "The margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at l…" at 33% YES. It has fallen to 2% since, a move of 32 points in 2 days. "Fed rate hike in 2026" crossed the 50% line to NO today. The market now reads 68% NO, having moved 1 points across the window. 3 of the 5 biggest movers sit in the Americas, clustered together on the map: "Fed rate hike in 2026" (United States) and "New Hampshire Senate Margin of Victory" (New Hampshire) and "Brazil First-Round Presidential Victory 2026" (Brazil). The month-long backdrop is unchanged: borrowing costs, mortgage rates and gas at the pump are still pressing on the wallet. Otherwise the picture held: 10-year treasury rate is 4.63%.
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Gas at $4.01 per gallon is what households pay each week for commuting, groceries, and heating; historically, elevated gas prices correlate with declining support for sitting leaders.
Consumer sentiment at 50 is severely depressed and historically signals that spending will contract as households tighten budgets.
Market volatility at 14.6 is low, reflecting traders' expectation of calm ahead and minimal concern about financial disruption.
A 30-year mortgage rate of 6.67% sets the monthly payment a household makes on a home loan; at this level, it has significantly reduced housing demand.
Source: FRED
The 30-year Treasury yield at 5.21% reflects concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability; when yields rise this high, mortgage rates and all long-term borrowing costs rise with them.
The yield curve spread of +0.51% is in the normal range; historically, when this curve inverts (goes negative), recessions have followed within a year or two.
Jobless claims at 209,000 remain in the healthy range; when claims rise sharply, they signal economic stress and job losses ahead.
Source: FRED
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.63% sits in a zone where bond markets historically have forced policy reversals (the April 2025 tariff pause occurred at this level).
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Manifold agree on a 2-point spread around 49% average probability, indicating moderate consensus on the likelihood of a rate hike, with prices slightly favoring a hike.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on Katharina Pötter's chances at 55%, indicating a neutral market view with no clear bias towards her or any other candidate, given the 0 percentage points spread.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket prices the event at 5%, indicating a slight chance of New Hampshire having the closest Senate race in 2026, with no price available on Kalshi for the margin of victory, suggesting uncertainty about specific outcomes.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Market pricing Bennett at 40% despite no competing liquidity suggests consensus around his viability post-election. Depressed consumer sentiment and elevated gas prices could destabilize current coalition dynamics, creating opening for opposition realignment that Bennett might le
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on Morgan Stanley's lead underwriter role, with a 7-point spread between 66% and 73%, indicating a nuanced market view on the bank's involvement.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 2 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |