The climate market on '2026 be the hottest year on record' has sustained one of the year's clearest moves, rising 22 points over the month to now read 51% NO.
In the Americas, Darline Graham Nordone's odds of winning the South Carolina Republican Senate seat—named by this brief at 56% YES four days ago—have climbed to 100%, indicating traders now see the outcome as decided. These moves come as the month-long wallet squeeze continues unchanged: mortgage rates sit near their year-high, gas has climbed all month, and household sentiment, though up from its recent low, still reads at 50 and signals spending caution. Jobless claims have fallen to 209k and hold within the healthy range, providing a backstop against deeper household stress even as caution spreads.
→ Open the live interactive board
Get this every morning
Delivered to your inbox at 6:30, with the full archive, alerts, and the live board →
Gas at $4.01 per gallon is elevated and historically correlates with voter disapproval, influencing elections.
Consumer sentiment at 50 is severely depressed, signaling households will likely cut spending and slow the economy.
Market volatility at 14.6 is low, meaning investors feel calm but may be unprepared for sudden shocks.
Mortgage rates at 6.67% are high, making home loans expensive and suppressing housing demand.
Source: FRED
The 30-year Treasury yield at 5.24% sits in the fiscal crisis zone where government borrowing costs force hard choices.
The yield curve spread at 0.48% is narrowing; historically this warns of recession when it inverts.
Jobless claims at 209k remain healthy, meaning most people are keeping their jobs and household income is steady.
Source: FRED
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.68% is high enough to pressure government policy and constrain the Federal Reserve's options.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on an average probability of 11%, indicating a low confidence level among market participants regarding North Carolina's Senate race being the closest in 2026, with no significant price difference between them.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on a 33% average probability of Amir Ohana winning the 2026 Likud party primary elections, with a 2 percentage point spread between them, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty and no clear consensus.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Sharp 34-point divergence between Sullivan-specific (40%) and Republican-generic (74%) odds suggests market uncertainty about Sullivan personally versus GOP retention of the seat. Consumer weakness and elevated gas prices create headwinds for incumbents, explaining Polymarket's s
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Single-source agreement at 10% probability reflects low near-term likelihood of GSE privatization given regulatory complexity and political barriers. Tight credit spreads and normal macro conditions don't substantially shift the structural obstacles to IPO execution within 3 year
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Single Democrat win probability (40%) across platforms despite different election cycles signals consensus pessimism. Elevated gas prices and depressed consumer sentiment create structural headwinds for the party in power, explaining the below-50% baseline.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 3 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |