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Morning brief · Tuesday, 11 August 2026

What moved overnight

3 rose · 2 fell · drawing from 90 live events
The big picture

On 2026-08-04 this brief named "Tulsi Gabbard Next Trump Cabinet Departure" at 13% YES. It has risen to 35% since, a move of 22 points in 7 days. 5 of the 5 biggest movers sit in Europe, clustered together on the map: "Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania" (Romania) and "Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania" (Romania) and "Șerban Matei Becomes Next Romanian PM" (Romania) and "Delia Velculescu Next Romanian Prime Minister" (Romania) and "Radu Burnete Next Romanian Prime Minister" (Romania). The market's price on "Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania" has risen 23 points over the past month, up 21 of that in the past week, one of the clearest sustained moves on the board. It now reads 76% NO. The month-long backdrop is unchanged: borrowing costs, mortgage rates and gas at the pump are still pressing on the wallet.

Today’s map of events and conflicts that moved overnight→ Open the live interactive board Get this every morning Delivered to your inbox at 6:30, with the full archive, alerts, and the live board →

What the economy is doing

Gas at the pump Watch
$4.01/gal
up from $3.78/gal a month ago, in the middle of its range for the past year.
Gas at the pump is $4.01/gal, up from $3.78/gal a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year. If the recent trend holds, next week it would be near $4.10/gal (a trend estimate, not a forecast).

Gas at $4.08 per gallon is what people pay to drive; higher prices reduce household spending on other things and have historically correlated with voter dissatisfaction.

Connects to: Florida Republican Governor Primary Second Place; Next Prime Minister of Sweden Election Agreement; Chris Thomas Isle of Man Chief Minister Odds
Source: FRED
30-year mortgage rate Caution
6.69%
up from 6.43% a month ago, near its highest in the past year.
30-year mortgage rate is 6.69%, up from 6.43% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year. If the recent trend holds, next week it would be near 6.70% (a trend estimate, not a forecast).

A 30-year mortgage rate of 6.69% determines monthly payments and affordability; at this level, housing demand typically falls.

Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment Warning
50
up from 45 a month ago, in the middle of its range for the past year.
Consumer sentiment is 50, up from 45 a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year. If the recent trend holds, next month it would be near 44 (a trend estimate, not a forecast).

Consumer sentiment at 50 is severely depressed; when people feel anxious about their finances, they tend to spend less.

Connects to: Florida Republican Governor Primary Second Place; Next Prime Minister of Sweden Election Agreement; Chris Thomas Isle of Man Chief Minister Odds
Source: FRED
30-year Treasury rate Warning
5.25%
up from 5.06% a month ago, near its highest in the past year.
30-year Treasury rate is 5.25%, up from 5.06% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year. If the recent trend holds, tomorrow it would be near 5.24% (a trend estimate, not a forecast).

The 30-year Treasury yield at 5.19% sits in the fiscal crisis zone; when borrowing costs spike, mortgage rates rise and housing demand freezes.

Source: FRED
10-year Treasury rate Warning
4.72%
up from 4.56% a month ago, near its highest in the past year.
10-year Treasury rate is 4.72%, up from 4.56% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year. If the recent trend holds, tomorrow it would be near 4.69% (a trend estimate, not a forecast).

The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.65% is the baseline for corporate and mortgage borrowing; rates at this level have historically forced policy reversals.

Source: FRED
People filing for unemployment Normal
199k
down from 217k a month ago, near its lowest in the past year.
People filing for unemployment is 199k, down from 217k a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year. If the recent trend holds, next week it would be near 189k (a trend estimate, not a forecast).

Jobless claims at 199,000 per week are near their lowest in a year; this suggests employment is strong, yet people remain anxious.

Source: FRED
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) Caution
+0.48%
up from +0.35% a month ago, in the middle of its range for the past year.
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.48%, up from +0.35% a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year. If the recent trend holds, tomorrow it would be near +0.47% (a trend estimate, not a forecast).

The yield curve spread of 0.47% measures the gap between long and short-term borrowing costs; historically when that gap reverses, recession follows.

Source: FRED
Market volatility (VIX) Normal
15.5
up from 15.0 a month ago, near its lowest in the past year.
Market volatility (VIX) is 15.5, up from 15.0 a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year. If the recent trend holds, tomorrow it would be near 14.1 (a trend estimate, not a forecast).

Market volatility at 14.9 is relatively low, indicating traders see few near-term risks to stock prices.

Source: FRED

Today’s movers

🇺🇸 Florida · Elections

Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary

79% YES · flat overnight

In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.

  • polymarket 79% YES · flat overnight

The platforms agree on a 62% probability of Jay Collins finishing second, with no price discrepancy between them, indicating a consensus view on this outcome.

🇸🇪 Sweden · Elections

Next Prime Minister of Sweden Election Agreement

98% NO · flat overnight

In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.

  • polymarket 98% NO · flat overnight

The platforms agree on a 0 percentage points spread, indicating no clear favorite among the candidates, with Jimmie Åkesson's price at 2% on Polymarket reflecting minimal market attention or expectation for him to become the next Prime Minister.

🌐 Global · Elections

Chris Thomas Isle of Man Chief Minister Odds

73% NO · fell 4pp overnight

In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew a little less sure overnight.

  • kalshi 66% NO · fell 10pp overnight
  • polymarket 79% NO · rose 2pp overnight

Kalshi (18%) and Polymarket (28%) disagree by 10 percentage points on Chris Thomas' chances, indicating differing opinions on his likelihood to become the next Chief Minister. The platforms show a moderate level of uncertainty about his prospects.

🇺🇸 South Carolina · Elections

Darline Graham qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Senate Republican specia…

72% YES · rose 5pp overnight

In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and grew a little more sure overnight.

  • kalshi 96% YES · flat overnight
  • polymarket 51% NO · fell 9pp overnight

The platforms agree on a 42% average probability of Darline Graham Nordone winning the primary, indicating a neutral market sentiment with no clear favorite or underdog.

🌐 Global · Entertainment

Next James Bond Actor

86% NO · rose 8pp overnight
Next James Bond Actor: drifting up, +14pp over 31d

In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and grew more sure overnight.

  • polymarket 86% NO · rose 8pp overnight

Polymarket and Kalshi disagree on Henry Cavill's chances, with Polymarket at 0% and Kalshi at 6%, indicating a 5-point spread that highlights a significant disagreement between the platforms on his likelihood of being cast.

Active conflicts

● CONFLICT · since 2023-10

ISRAEL – GAZA

Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.

  • Duration~1.5 years
  • Displaced~1.9M in Gaza (~85% of pop)
  • Reported deaths (Gaza MoH)~50K+
  • Reported deaths (Israel)~1,700
● CONFLICT · since 2022-02

RUSSIA – UKRAINE

Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.

  • Duration~4 years
  • Displaced8M refugees · 5M internal
  • Estimated military casualties~700K combined
  • Civilian deaths reported~12K confirmed (UN OHCHR)
● CONFLICT · since 2023-04

SUDAN

SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.

  • Duration~2 years
  • Displaced~12M (largest displacement crisis globally)
  • Deaths estimated~150K+
● CONFLICT · since 2023-11

YEMEN / RED SEA

Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.

  • Duration of current escalation~1.5 years
  • Red Sea traffic drop~50% (Lloyd's List)
  • Confirmed vessel attacks~140+
● CONFLICT · since 2021-02

MYANMAR

Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.

  • Duration~5 years (since 2021 coup)
  • Displaced~3M+

Regional snapshot

AMERICAS1 rose 0 fell 1 flat
EUROPE0 rose 0 fell 1 flat
ASIA0 rose 0 fell 0 flat
MENA0 rose 0 fell 0 flat
AFRICA0 rose 0 fell 0 flat
CRYPTO0 rose 0 fell 0 flat