On 2026-07-26 this brief named "Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections" at 49% YES. It has risen to 97% since, a move of 48 points in 12 days. On 2026-07-26 this brief named "Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election" at 70% YES. It has risen to 97% since, a move of 27 points in 12 days. 2 of the 5 biggest movers sit in the Americas, clustered together on the map: "Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate specia…" (South Carolina) and "The margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at l…" (North Carolina). The month-long backdrop is unchanged: borrowing costs, mortgage rates and gas at the pump are still pressing on the wallet. Otherwise the picture held: market volatility (vix) is 15.8.
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Gas at the pump at $4.08 per gallon, up from $3.83 a month ago, directly raises household commuting and heating costs.
A 30-year mortgage now costs 6.69%, up from 6.43% a month ago, near its highest in the past year, pricing many homebuyers out of the market.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment at 50, up from 45 a month ago, remains severely depressed and signals likely spending contraction despite job availability.
The 30-year Treasury yield at 5.17%, up from 4.99% a month ago and in the fiscal-crisis zone, directly determines what the government pays to borrow for spending.
Source: FRED
People filing for unemployment is 199k, down from 217k a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.63%, up from 4.48% a month ago, sits in the zone where rising yields have historically forced policy reversals.
Source: FRED
Stock market volatility at 15.8, near its lowest in the past year, shows traders see no immediate crisis even as rates rise.
Source: FRED
The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields at 0.44%, up from 0.36% a month ago, is the market's signal for recession risk ahead.
Source: FREDIn plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Massive 48-point spread between Kalshi (63%) and Polymarket (15%) on U.S. recognition of breakaway Somaliland. Disagreement likely reflects different interpretations of Trump's foreign policy priorities, geopolitical constraints with Somalia, and whether recognition occurs via ex
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Manifold agree on an average probability of 83%, with a 2-point spread between their prices, indicating moderate consensus among traders that traffic will return to normal by the end of the year.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms show a significant disagreement on the host city, with Kalshi pricing at 84% and Polymarket at 5%, indicating a large spread of 79 percentage points that highlights differing opinions among market participants.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on Rubio's nomination odds at 26-30%, a 3-point spread indicating moderate disagreement between the platforms, with Kalshi slightly more optimistic.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold prices the Clarity Act at 39%, while polymarket is lower at 30%, indicating a disagreement of 9 percentage points, reflecting differing opinions on the likelihood of its passage.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 3 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |