Today’s movers
🇺🇸 Idaho · Elections
The Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026
91% YES · flat overnight
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will happen, and held steady overnight.
- kalshi 88% YES · flat overnight
- polymarket 93% YES · flat overnight
Kalshi prices Republican victory at 84% vs Polymarket's 92%—an unusual 8-point gap for a heavily Republican state. Depressed consumer sentiment and elevated gas prices create macro headwinds that could suppress GOP turnout, explaining Kalshi's more conservative estimate despite I
🇺🇸 North Carolina · Elections
The margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at l…
74% NO · fell 16pp overnight
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew less sure overnight.
- kalshi 50% NO · fell 40pp overnight
- polymarket 97% NO · rose 7pp overnight
Both platforms agree on an average probability of 11%, indicating a low confidence level among market participants regarding North Carolina's Senate race being the closest in 2026, with no significant price difference between them.
🇺🇸 United States · Other
Trump Recognizes Somaliland Before 2027
92% NO · flat overnight
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
- polymarket 92% NO · flat overnight
Massive 48-point spread between Kalshi (63%) and Polymarket (15%) on U.S. recognition of breakaway Somaliland. Disagreement likely reflects different interpretations of Trump's foreign policy priorities, geopolitical constraints with Somalia, and whether recognition occurs via ex
🇺🇸 Oregon · Economics
Morgan Stanley OpenAI IPO Lead Underwriter
74% NO · flat overnight
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
- kalshi 80% NO · flat overnight
- polymarket 68% NO · flat overnight
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on a low probability of Morgan Stanley serving as lead underwriter in OpenAI's IPO, with prices at 20% and 24%, respectively, indicating a narrow spread that reflects shared skepticism about their involvement.
🤖 Global Tech · Economics
Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Ant…
52% YES · rose 8pp overnight
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and grew more sure overnight.
- polymarket 52% YES · rose 8pp overnight
Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on Morgan Stanley's lead underwriter role, with a 7-point spread between 66% and 73%, indicating a nuanced market view on the bank's involvement.
Active conflicts
● CONFLICT · since 2023-10
ISRAEL – GAZA
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
- Duration~1.5 years
- Displaced~1.9M in Gaza (~85% of pop)
- Reported deaths (Gaza MoH)~50K+
- Reported deaths (Israel)~1,700
● CONFLICT · since 2022-02
RUSSIA – UKRAINE
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
- Duration~4 years
- Displaced8M refugees · 5M internal
- Estimated military casualties~700K combined
- Civilian deaths reported~12K confirmed (UN OHCHR)
● CONFLICT · since 2023-04
SUDAN
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
- Duration~2 years
- Displaced~12M (largest displacement crisis globally)
- Deaths estimated~150K+
● CONFLICT · since 2023-11
YEMEN / RED SEA
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
- Duration of current escalation~1.5 years
- Red Sea traffic drop~50% (Lloyd's List)
- Confirmed vessel attacks~140+
● CONFLICT · since 2021-02
MYANMAR
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
- Duration~5 years (since 2021 coup)
- Displaced~3M+
