Vermont's Democratic governor race moved at twenty times its typical daily pace today, the market for a Democratic win falling 44 points to 28%. In Florida, traders moved the opposite direction, pushing the odds for Jay Collins placing second in the Republican primary up 18 points to 62%. The economic backdrop tightened: the 30-year Treasury moved to 5.21%, up from 4.91% a month ago, and mortgage rates rose to 6.66% from 6.49%, making home borrowing significantly more expensive. Gas at the pump is $4.10, up from $3.91 a month ago, and consumer sentiment, while up to 50 from 45, remains severely depressed.
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30-year Treasury rate is 5.21%, up from 4.91% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
The 10-year Treasury at 4.68% influences borrowing costs across the entire economy; historically, sustained pressure above 4.5% forces reversals in government spending and policy.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment at 50, down from 45 a month ago but still severely depressed, signals households are reluctant to spend, which threatens business sales and job creation.
Gas at $4.10 a gallon, up from $3.91 a month ago, directly increases household transportation costs and historically correlates with voter approval declines.
People filing for unemployment is 197k, down from 216k a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
The yield curve at +0.47%, up from +0.31% a month ago, measures the spread between long and short-term rates; a sustained inversion signals recession risk.
Source: FRED
The 30-year mortgage rate at 6.66%, up from 6.49% a month ago, makes borrowing for a home significantly more expensive and suppresses housing demand.
Source: FRED
Market volatility at 17.1 reflects investors' perceived fear of sudden price swings; elevated readings typically precede significant stock market movements.
Source: FREDIn plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms agree on an average probability of 68%, indicating a neutral market sentiment with no clear favorite or underdog in the next Prime Minister election, as evidenced by the 0 percentage points spread between them.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on a 1% chance of Matt Gaetz being the Republican vice presidential nominee, indicating extremely low market confidence in this outcome.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on a 20% chance of Ulf Kristersson becoming the next Prime Minister, indicating a neutral market view with no clear bias or disagreement between them.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Market estimates 16% probability Trump successfully takes control of the Panama Canal. Agreement across platforms suggests modest consensus that this geopolitical outcome is unlikely but not negligible, reflecting recent rhetoric around canal sovereignty.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds β drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 3 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |