Consumer sentiment is 45, down from 50 a month ago. "Trump and Putin not meet" cites that number in its own backing data, and its odds of happening rose 32 points, moving the other way. It now reads 70% YES. On manifold, the odds on "Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]" rose 16 points in the past day, about 2.6 times its normal daily move of 6.3 points. It now reads 61% NO.
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30-year Treasury rate is 5.20%, up from 4.86% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Market volatility (VIX) is 20.7, up from 17.6 a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
10-year Treasury rate is 4.67%, up from 4.38% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment is 45, down from 50 a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Gas at the pump is $4.10/gal, up from $3.91/gal a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.45%, up from +0.28% a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
People filing for unemployment is 197k, down from 216k a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
30-year mortgage rate is 6.66%, up from 6.49% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Source: FREDIn plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The platforms show a significant disagreement on the host city, with Kalshi pricing at 84% and Polymarket at 5%, indicating a large spread of 79 percentage points that highlights differing opinions among market participants.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will happen, and grew much more sure overnight.
Manifold (63%) and polymarket (87%) disagree on the likelihood of "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" beating or exceeding $280m, with a 24-point spread indicating differing opinions on the film's box office performance.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Kalshi disagree on the likelihood of a meeting, with Kalshi pricing a meeting at 96% and Polymarket pricing a non-meeting at 58%, indicating a significant disagreement between the platforms.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Markets pricing Apple's chances of launching a new product line in the next ~2.5 years at just 28%, suggesting skepticism about category expansion beyond existing iPhone/Mac/Watch/iPad portfolios. The tight 2-point spread indicates consensus that this is a low-probability event.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew a little more sure overnight.
Manifold prices the Clarity Act at 39%, while polymarket is lower at 30%, indicating a disagreement of 9 percentage points, reflecting differing opinions on the likelihood of its passage.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 1 fell 0 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |