On polymarket, the odds on "The Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026" rose 5 points in the past day, about 4.7 times its normal daily move of 1.1 points. It now reads 60% NO. On polymarket, the odds on "The Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026" rose 5 points in the past day, about 4.4 times its normal daily move of 1.1 points. It now reads 60% NO. 3 of the 5 biggest movers sit in the Americas, clustered together on the map: "Fed rate hike in 2026" (United States) and "The Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026" (Iowa) and "The Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026" (Iowa). Otherwise the picture held: yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.35%; market volatility (vix) is 18.2.
→ Open the live interactive board
Get this every morning
Delivered to your inbox at 6:30, with the full archive, alerts, and the live board →
People filing for unemployment is 187k, down from 227k a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
10-year Treasury rate is 4.65%, up from 4.38% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
30-year Treasury rate is 5.12%, up from 4.87% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Consumer sentiment is 45, down from 50 a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Gas at the pump is $4.10/gal, up from $3.91/gal a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
30-year mortgage rate is 6.58%, up from 6.47% a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.35%, up from +0.31% a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Market volatility (VIX) is 18.2, down from 18.4 a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Manifold agree on a 2-point spread around 49% average probability, indicating moderate consensus on the likelihood of a rate hike, with prices slightly favoring a hike.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Single Democrat win probability (40%) across platforms despite different election cycles signals consensus pessimism. Elevated gas prices and depressed consumer sentiment create structural headwinds for the party in power, explaining the below-50% baseline.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Cross-platform agreement on Democratic underdog odds (40% Polymarket vs 34% Kalshi) reflects structural headwinds: depressed consumer sentiment and elevated gas prices historically suppress incumbent party performance. The 6-point spread suggests modest pricing inefficiency rathe
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both major prediction markets price Le Pen's victory at 6%, suggesting consensus that she remains a long-shot despite recent far-right momentum in France. The tight spread indicates confidence in this low probability assessment, though depressed consumer sentiment and elevated en
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on an 8% average probability of the champion being one specific team (Tottenham), with no other prices available, indicating a lack of market activity or interest in other teams.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 3 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 2 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |