On polymarket, the odds on "Trump and Putin 2026 Meeting Location" fell 64 points in the past day, about 9.8 times its normal daily move of 6.5 points. It now reads 95% NO. Gas at the pump is $4.10/gal, up from $3.91/gal a month ago. "North Carolina Senate Margin of Victory Disagreement" cites that number in its own backing data, and its odds of happening fell 16 points, moving the other way. It now reads 93% NO. 4 of the 5 biggest movers sit in the Americas, clustered together on the map: "North Carolina Senate Margin of Victory Disagreement" (North Carolina) and "Matt Gaetz Vice Presidential Nominee Odds" (United States) and "Fed rate hike in 2026" (United States) and "Byron Donalds 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee" (United States). Otherwise the picture held: yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.34%; market volatility (vix) is 18.7.
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People filing for unemployment is 187k, down from 227k a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
10-year Treasury rate is 4.65%, up from 4.38% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
30-year Treasury rate is 5.12%, up from 4.87% a month ago, and near its highest in the past year.
Consumer sentiment is 45, down from 50 a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Gas at the pump is $4.10/gal, up from $3.91/gal a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
30-year mortgage rate is 6.58%, up from 6.47% a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.34%, up from +0.31% a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Market volatility (VIX) is 18.7, up from 18.4 a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FREDIn plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Kalshi disagree on the likelihood of a meeting, with Kalshi pricing a meeting at 96% and Polymarket pricing a non-meeting at 58%, indicating a significant disagreement between the platforms.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and grew more sure overnight.
The platforms disagree on the likelihood of a close Senate race in North Carolina, with Polymarket pricing it at 4% and Kalshi at 11%, indicating differing opinions on the competitiveness of the election.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on a 1% chance of Matt Gaetz being the Republican vice presidential nominee, indicating extremely low market confidence in this outcome.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The matched event shows agreement between Polymarket and Manifold at 54%, indicating a neutral market sentiment with no clear bias towards a rate hike or hold, as the platforms price it similarly.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Kalshi disagree by 21 percentage points, with Polymarket pricing Donalds at 24% and Kalshi at 3%, indicating a significant divergence in market expectations about his nomination chances.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 1 rose 0 fell 3 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |