Consumer sentiment is 45, down from 50 a month ago. "Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election" cites that number in its own backing data, and its odds of happening rose 8 points, moving the other way. It now reads 70% YES. On 2026-07-20 this brief named "Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections" at 86% YES. It has fallen to 49% since, a move of 36 points in 6 days. 4 of the 5 biggest movers sit in the Americas, clustered together on the map: "Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?" (United States) and "Clarity Act Signed Into Law by End of 2026" (United States) and "Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election" (United States) and "Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections" (United States). Otherwise the picture held: gas at the pump is $4.00/gal.
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Jobless claims of 187,000 show whether people are keeping their jobs or losing employment.
Source: FRED
The 30-year Treasury rate at 5.17% directly affects mortgage rates and determines how expensive it is to borrow money for a house.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment at 45 measures whether households believe they can afford to spend money on major purchases.
The 10-year Treasury rate at 4.71% reflects debt costs and can signal whether the government's fiscal situation is worsening.
Source: FRED
Mortgage rates at 6.58% determine the cost of borrowing to buy a house, directly affecting housing affordability.
Source: FRED
Market volatility at 18.7 measures how confident investors are in the stability of the stock market.
Source: FRED
The yield curve at 0.36% between 10-year and 2-year rates shows whether bond investors expect economic conditions to worsen or improve.
Source: FRED
Gas prices at $4.00 per gallon affect household budgets and commuting costs.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on an average probability of 11%, indicating a low confidence level among market participants regarding North Carolina's Senate race being the closest in 2026, with no significant price difference between them.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket prices the event at 5%, indicating a slight chance of New Hampshire having the closest Senate race in 2026, with no price available on Kalshi for the margin of victory, suggesting uncertainty about specific outcomes.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket prices Gabbard's exit before 2027 at 100%, suggesting near-certainty she'll leave first among Cabinet members. The perfect agreement across platforms indicates strong consensus, though 100% pricing may reflect low liquidity rather than genuine inevitability.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on a 1% chance of Matt Gaetz being the Republican vice presidential nominee, indicating extremely low market confidence in this outcome.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Both platforms agree on Jordan Bardella's 6% chance of advancing to the second round, indicating a low confidence level among market participants in his qualification prospects.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 4 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |