On July 13, this brief named 'Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet' at 54% YES. It has fallen to 11% since—a move of 43 points in eight days. Four of the five biggest movers cluster across the United States, as traders reassessed odds on Cabinet departures and political races. Gas at the pump fell to $3.85 from $4.15 a month ago, yet consumer sentiment remains stuck at 45, the lowest in a year, showing that cheaper fuel prices alone have not restored household confidence in spending. The 10-year Treasury rate holds at 4.55%, the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.55%, both steady from recent weeks.
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Consumer sentiment at 45 is severely depressed, signaling households feel anxious and will likely cut spending.
Jobless claims of 208,000 show the job market is in the healthy normal range.
Source: FRED
Market volatility of 18.8 measures investor fear and at this normal level shows investors are neither panicked nor complacent.
Source: FRED
The 30-year Treasury yield of 5.06% sets mortgage rates and at this level sits in the fiscal crisis zone constraining government policy.
The yield curve spread of 0.39% reflects economic confidence and at this middle-range level shows a moderate outlook.
The 10-year Treasury yield of 4.55% affects government borrowing costs and at this bond vigilante pressure level can force policy shifts like April 2025's tariff pause.
Gas at $3.85 per gallon is approaching the consumer sensitivity zone where household spending starts dropping.
The 30-year mortgage rate of 6.55% is what families pay to borrow for homes and at this high level severely suppresses housing demand.
Source: FRED
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Massive 48-point spread between Kalshi (63%) and Polymarket (15%) on U.S. recognition of breakaway Somaliland. Disagreement likely reflects different interpretations of Trump's foreign policy priorities, geopolitical constraints with Somalia, and whether recognition occurs via ex
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
This event tracks whether the Clarity Act receives presidential signature by December 31, 2026. The tight 1-point spread across major platforms (60-62%) suggests genuine uncertainty about legislative passage and timing, with modest consensus leaning toward passage.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket and Manifold agree on an average probability of 83%, with a 2-point spread between their prices, indicating moderate consensus among traders that traffic will return to normal by the end of the year.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Kalshi (64%) and Polymarket (54%) disagree on the likelihood of Count Binface Party finishing second, with a 10-point spread indicating differing opinions on their chances rather than a clear mispricing.
In plain terms: the public’s money is close to a coin flip on whether this will happen, and held steady overnight.
The matched event shows agreement between Polymarket and Manifold at 54%, indicating a neutral market sentiment with no clear bias towards a rate hike or hold, as the platforms price it similarly.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 4 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |