On 2026-07-12 this brief named "Trump recognize Somaliland" at 35% YES. It has fallen to 7% since, a move of 28 points in 6 days. 4 of the 4 biggest movers sit in the Americas, clustered together on the map: "Argentina win the World Cup" (Argentina) and "Grüne Seats Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026" (United States) and "Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election" (United States) and "US Alien Existence Confirmation Before 2027" (United States). Gas at the pump is $3.85/gal, down from $4.15/gal a month ago. "Grüne Seats Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026" cites that number in its own backing data, and its odds of happening rose 7 points, moving the other way. It now reads 85% NO. Otherwise the picture held: market volatility (vix) is 16.7; 30-year mortgage rate is 6.55%.
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Gas prices affect what families pay when they fill up and influence election outcomes through pocketbook voting.
When consumer sentiment falls, families pull back on spending and investing, signaling economic weakness ahead.
Fewer people filing for unemployment means companies are keeping workers on payroll, signaling steady employment and household income.
Source: FRED
This 30-year Treasury yield determines the interest rate families pay on 30-year mortgages, locking in decades of monthly housing costs.
Source: FRED
When this 10-year Treasury rate rises, the Federal Reserve typically follows by raising interest rates, which increases what families and businesses pay to borrow.
Source: FRED
When long-term interest rates fall close to or below short-term rates, history shows a recession has followed within one to two years in most cases.
Source: FRED
Market volatility measures how fearful traders are about the future; high levels typically accompany sharp market moves and economic uncertainty.
Source: FRED
This is the interest rate on 30-year mortgages; when it rises, homeownership becomes more expensive and housing demand declines.
Source: FRED
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold prices a 37% chance of Russian invasion, while Polymarket's related event is priced at 16%, indicating a significant disagreement between the two platforms on this probability estimate.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
Polymarket prices Grüne at 0% while Kalshi shows 70% for an unrelated Kosovan election—this appears to be a data matching error rather than genuine disagreement on the German regional race. Elevated gas prices and depressed consumer sentiment suggest headwinds for incumbent parti
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The two platforms agree on a 2-point spread, with Manifold slightly higher at 15%, indicating a slight divergence in their assessments of the invasion probability, which remains low overall at an average of 14%.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Kalshi (64%) and Polymarket (54%) disagree on the likelihood of Count Binface Party finishing second, with a 10-point spread indicating differing opinions on their chances rather than a clear mispricing.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The 28% average probability reflects a neutral market, with no clear consensus on the Citrini scenario's likelihood. The 0 percentage points spread between platforms indicates a lack of disagreement, suggesting a balanced market view.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 0 rose 0 fell 3 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |