Gas prices have eased to $3.85 per gallon, down from $4.15 a month ago, while traders pushed odds on Marine Le Pen running for France's presidency to 91% YES, up 7 points.
The Le Pen market cites gas in its backing data. Traders have raised odds on Trump recognizing Somaliland to 33% YES, up 24 points from 9% two days ago. Consumer sentiment remains at 45, the lowest in a year. The 30-year mortgage rate holds at 6.55% and the 30-year Treasury yield at 5.08%, locking families into years of high carrying costs for home purchases. Market volatility and the yield curve have held steady in recent weeks.
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Gas prices directly affect household spending power, especially for transportation and goods.
Consumer sentiment at 45, the lowest in a year, reflects household caution about finances and future spending.
Jobless claims at 208,000 indicate the rate of new unemployment requests and job market health.
Source: FRED
The 30-year Treasury yield at 5.08% determines the mortgage rates families face when buying homes.
Source: FRED
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.55% sets borrowing costs throughout the economy for mortgages, auto loans, and business investment.
Source: FRED
The yield curve at 0.41% shows the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates, informing expectations about future economic growth.
Source: FRED
The VIX at 15.7 measures investor fear and market stability, sitting in the normal range.
Source: FRED
The 30-year mortgage rate at 6.55% determines how much home purchases cost for families over the full loan period.
Source: FRED
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Manifold prices Mélenchon at 87%, while the average probability is 45%, indicating a significant disagreement between platforms, with some expecting him to be a candidate and others doubting it.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and held steady overnight.
The two platforms agree on a 2-point spread, with Manifold slightly higher at 15%, indicating a slight divergence in their assessments of the invasion probability, which remains low overall at an average of 14%.
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and held steady overnight.
Prediction on whether no significant events will occur in 2026. Tight 2-point spread across platforms (71-73%) suggests genuine uncertainty about event definition and likelihood despite high baseline probability.
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and grew less sure overnight.
Polymarket prices Grüne at 0% while Kalshi shows 70% for an unrelated Kosovan election—this appears to be a data matching error rather than genuine disagreement on the German regional race. Elevated gas prices and depressed consumer sentiment suggest headwinds for incumbent parti
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and grew a little more sure overnight.
Markets pricing AfD plurality at ~19% despite economic headwinds (depressed sentiment, elevated gas prices) historically favoring anti-incumbent parties. Close agreement across platforms suggests consensus skepticism of AfD's breakthrough despite favorable macro conditions.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 1 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 1 fell 1 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 0 fell 1 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |