The picture held. 3 of the 7 numbers the brief tracks are unchanged. The largest move anywhere was "Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31", whose odds fell 45 points recently. It now reads 96% NO. 2 of the 5 biggest movers sit in the Middle East and North Africa, clustered together on the map: "Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31" (Strait of Hormuz) and "Naftali Bennett Next Israeli Prime Minister" (Israel).
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Gas at the pump is $3.78/gal, down from $4.30/gal a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Market volatility (VIX) is 15.8, down from 19.9 a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment is 45, down from 50 a month ago, and near its lowest in the past year.
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr) is +0.35%, down from +0.42% a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
30-year Treasury rate is 5.05%, about the same as a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
10-year Treasury rate is 4.54%, about the same as a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
30-year mortgage rate is 6.49%, about the same as a month ago, and in the middle of its range for the past year.
Source: FRED
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and grew less sure overnight.
Market consensus at 10% reflects skepticism of a near-term announcement given Vance's current VP role and weak economic conditions (gas $4.12, consumer sentiment 57) that typically disfavor incumbent administration moves. Agreement across platforms suggests genuine uncertainty ra
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and grew more sure overnight.
Massive 48-point spread between Kalshi (63%) and Polymarket (15%) on U.S. recognition of breakaway Somaliland. Disagreement likely reflects different interpretations of Trump's foreign policy priorities, geopolitical constraints with Somalia, and whether recognition occurs via ex
In plain terms: the public’s money is very confident this will not happen, and grew much more sure overnight.
Market pricing Bennett at 40% despite no competing liquidity suggests consensus around his viability post-election. Depressed consumer sentiment and elevated gas prices could destabilize current coalition dynamics, creating opening for opposition realignment that Bennett might le
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will happen, and grew much more sure overnight.
Manifold prices show a 45% chance of increased deliveries, while the absence of a price on Kalshi indicates no market expectation for a specific delivery total, reflecting agreement between platforms on uncertainty surrounding Tesla's delivery pro…
In plain terms: the public’s money is leaning that this will not happen, and grew much less sure overnight.
Polymarket prices the event at 21%, indicating a slight majority believes US GDP growth will be between 1.5% and 2.0%. The 0 percentage points spread suggests agreement on this probability, with no significant divergence between platforms.
Hamas attack of 7 Oct 2023 followed by ongoing IDF operations in Gaza; ripples into Hezbollah / Houthi / Iran lanes.
Russian invasion that began Feb 2022; front lines largely static along the Donbas / Zaporizhzhia axis. Drives Brent, gas, grain, defense-stock pricing.
SAF vs RSF civil war since April 2023. Khartoum + Darfur worst-hit. Off most newsfeeds — drives African food-aid and gold-flow markets.
Houthi missile/drone attacks on Red Sea shipping diverting traffic around the Cape. Bumps WTI, shipping rates, supply-chain timing markets.
Post-coup civil war between junta and PDF + ethnic armed organizations. Junta losing territory in Shan + Rakhine since late 2023.
| AMERICAS | 2 rose 1 fell 0 flat |
| EUROPE | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| ASIA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| MENA | 0 rose 1 fell 0 flat |
| AFRICA | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |
| CRYPTO | 0 rose 0 fell 0 flat |