Gas at the pump
Watch
$4.05/gal
down from $4.50/gal a month ago, in the middle of its range for the past year.
Gas at $4.05 a gallon comes straight out of your commute and trips to the store, and historical data shows when gas is high like this, voters tend to blame whoever is in power.
Connects to: Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least 5 percentage points?; J.D. Vance Presidential Run Before 2027
Source: FRED
10-year Treasury rate
Caution
4.49%
down from 4.61% a month ago, in the middle of its range for the past year.
When the 10-year borrowing rate reaches 4.49%, the government starts paying more interest on its debt, which typically leads to pressure on spending programs or taxes, and it also pushes up mortgage rates.
Source: FRED
30-year Treasury rate
Caution
4.93%
down from 5.14% a month ago, in the middle of its range for the past year.
The 30-year borrowing rate at 4.93% is nearing the 5% level where bond investors get very nervous about government debt, which can trigger sudden policy changes.
Source: FRED
Yield curve (10yr minus 2yr)
Caution
+0.27%
down from +0.54% a month ago, near its lowest in the past year.
When the difference between what the government pays for 10-year and 2-year borrowing narrows to just 0.27%, it's a warning sign that investors are getting nervous about the future economy.
Source: FRED
Consumer sentiment
Warning
50
down from 53 a month ago, near its lowest in the past year.
Consumer sentiment at 50 is severely depressed, meaning people are worried about the economy and spending less, which directly affects job prospects and the overall economy.
Connects to: Will the margin of victory for Xavier Becerra in the governor primary election in California be at least 5 percentage points?; J.D. Vance Presidential Run Before 2027
Source: FRED
Market volatility (VIX)
Normal
18.4
up from 17.8 a month ago, in the middle of its range for the past year.
The VIX at 18.4 shows stock markets are calm right now, but this calm could change quickly if economic data worsens.
Source: FRED
30-year mortgage rate
Watch
6.47%
up from 6.36% a month ago, in the middle of its range for the past year.
The 30-year mortgage rate at 6.47% means a typical home is even less affordable than last month, putting homeownership further out of reach for many families.
Source: FRED
